Palm oil tax and heart deaths in India
What it found
A 20% tax on palm oil purchases in India could modestly reduce deaths from heart attacks and strokes, but may also slightly increase food insecurity.
The findings come from a computer model, not a real-world trial.
What they found
Deaths averted
A 20% palm oil tax without any substitution would be expected to avert about 363,000 deaths from heart attacks and strokes over 2014 to 2023, a 1.3% reduction. With substitution to other oils, the reduction could be as much as 421,000 deaths.
Cholesterol change
The tax would lower total cholesterol by about 0.08 mmol/L, a 1.7% change. A change of at least 0.009 mmol/L is considered clinically significant.
Who benefits most
The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations. This is because of differences in how much palm oil they consume and their heart disease risk.
Food insecurity
The tax may increase food insecurity by less than 1%, leading to 16,000 deaths over 10 years. This is based on the highest risk estimates for death from food insecurity.
Substitution matters
If people switch from palm oil to soybean oil, which is high in polyunsaturated fat, the beneficial effect on deaths would be greater. A 1% rise in soybean oil consumption increased the number of averted deaths by 0.5%.
What the authors conclude
“Curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality, but with potential distributional consequences differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security.”
Also in their conclusions
- They conclude that curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality.
- They note that this comes with potential distributional consequences, differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security.
- They suggest that designing appropriate protections in existing food subsidy programs to accompany a palm oil tax requires further consideration.
How it was done
India is expected to have more deaths from cardiovascular disease than any other country over the next decade, and palm oil is a major source of saturated fat there. The authors wanted to see if taxing palm oil could lower cholesterol and deaths from heart attacks and strokes.
The authors built a computer model of the Indian population aged 20 to 79, using national data on blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, and heart disease history. They simulated a 20% tax on palm oil purchases over 2014 to 2023, with and without people switching to other oils.
What it can’t tell you
- This is a mathematical model, not a real-world study, so it cannot capture all aspects of reality or predict the future.
- The model uses total cholesterol rather than a complete lipid profile, so it cannot show the full picture of how different cholesterol types affect heart disease risk.
- The projections rely on existing data and trends, which may change with future health campaigns.
Who paid
- Funding
- Funded by Wellcome Trust; NIA NIH HHS (from the PubMed record).
- Conflicts
- Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf and declare: support for the submitted work as detailed above; no financial relationships with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
- Authors work at
- Stanford University, USA
The paper
- Title
- Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model
- Type
- Study
- Summarised from
- Full text
- Cite
- Basu S, Babiarz KS, Ebrahim S, Vellakkal S, Stuckler D, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD (2013). Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model. BMJ (Clinical research ed.). doi:10.1136/bmj.f6048Free full textPubMed 24149818DOI
Summary written 26 Sep 2026. Check it against the paper before it changes what you eat. How we summarise papers · Report an error